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Download the Paper (735 K, PDF file) - January 1, 1997 Tell a colleague about it. Printing Tips: Select 'print as image' in the Acrobat print dialog if you have trouble printing.

ABSTRACT:
This paper explains why seemingly irrational overconfident behavior can persist. Information aggregation is poor in groups in which most individuals herd. By ignoring the herd, the actions of overconfident individuals (“entrepreneurs”) convey their private information. However, entrepreneurs make mistakes and thus die more frequently. The socially optimal proportion of entrepreneurs trades off the positive information externality against high attrition rates of entrepreneurs, and depends on the size of the group, on the degree of overconfidence, and on the accuracy of individuals’ private information. The stationary distribution trades off the fitness of the group against the fitness of overconfident individuals.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
Antonio Bernardo and Ivo Welch, "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs" (January 1, 1997). Finance. Paper 9-97.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/anderson/fin/9-97