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Download the Paper (267 K, PDF file) - December 16, 2005 Tell a colleague about it. Printing Tips: Select 'print as image' in the Acrobat print dialog if you have trouble printing.

ABSTRACT:
The United States Energy Information Administration publishes annual forecasts of nationally aggregated energy consumption, production, prices, intensity and GDP. These government issued forecasts often serve as reference cases in the calibration of simulation and econometric models, which climate and energy policy are based on. This study tests for rationality of published EIA forecasts under symmetric and asymmetric loss. We find strong empirical evidence of asymmetric loss for oil, coal and gas prices as well as natural gas consumption, GDP and energy intensity.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
Maximilian Auffhammer, "The Rationality of EIA Forecasts under Symmetric and Asymmetric Loss" (December 16, 2005). Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UCB. CUDARE Working Paper 1009.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/are_ucb/1009