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Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends Andrey V. Korotayev, Russian State University for the Humanities, Moscow Artemy S. Malkov, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Moscow Daria A. Khaltourina, Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow Working paper preprint from Introduction to Social Macrodynamics. Secular Cycles and Millennial Trends by Andrey Korotayev, Artemy Malkov, and Daria Khaltourina. Moscow: Editorial URSS, 2006. Pp. 95–133. http://urss.ru/cgi-bin/db.pl?cp=&lang=en&blang=en&list=14&page=Book&id=37484
ABSTRACT: We consider what effects could be produced by the long-term interaction of millennial macrotrends of the World System development and shorter-term cyclical dynamics. Among other things this will make it possible for us to demonstrate how even rather simple mathematical models of pre-industrial political-demographic cycles could help us to account for a paradox that has been encountered recently by political anthropologists.
Our research confirms that, notwithstanding recent arguments to the contrary, population density was a major determinant of warfare frequency in pre-industrial societies. However, the relationship between the two variables is dynamic, and could only be adequately described by nonlinear dynamic mod-els. Hence, we confront a rather paradoxical situation. On the one hand, we observe a millennial trend leading to the growth of both population density and warfare frequency. As a result, from a long-term perspective, we observe a very strong positive correlation between these two variables. But on the other hand, we also observe secular demographic-warfare cycles, which produce negative correlations both for individual cultures and for subsamples of cultures with similar levels of technological and/or political development. So finally, if we make a straightforward cross-cultural test of the linear rela-tionship between the two variables using a world-wide sample including cul-tures with all levels of technological and political development, we do not find any significant correlation at all. However it appears that hiding behind this "non-correlation" is the presence of an extremely strong and significant dy-namic non-linear relationship.
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