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On earthquake predictability measurement: Information score and error diagram
Yan Y. Kagan

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ABSTRACT:

We discuss two methods for measuring the effectiveness of earthquake prediction algorithms: The information score based on the likelihood ratio and error diagrams. For both of these methods, closed form expressions are obtained for the renewal process based on the gamma and lognormal distributions. The error diagram is more informative than the likelihood ratio and uniquely specifies the information score. We derive an expression connecting the information score and error diagrams. We then obtain the estimate of the region bounds in the error diagram for any value of the information score. We discuss how these preliminary results can be extended for more realistic models of earthquake occurrence.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
Yan Y. Kagan, "On earthquake predictability measurement: Information score and error diagram" (2007). Pure and Applied Geophysics. 164 (10), pp. 1947-1962. 10.1007/s00024-007-0260-1. Postprint available free at: http://repositories.cdlib.org/postprints/3212

REQUIRED PUBLISHER STATEMENT:
The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com

 
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