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Evidence-based medicine, heterogeneity of treatment effects, and the trouble with averages Richard L. Kravitz, University of California, Davis N H. Duan J Braslow
ABSTRACT: Evidence-based medicine is the application of scientific evidence to
clinical practice. This article discusses the difficulties of applying global
evidence ("average effects" measured as population means) to local problems
(individual patients or groups who might depart from the population average).
It argues that the benefit or harm of most treatments in clinical trials can be
misleading and fail to reveal the potentially complex mixture of substantial
benefits for some, little benefit for many, and harm for a few. Heterogeneity
of treatment effects reflects patient diversity in risk of disease,
responsiveness to treatment, vulnerability to adverse effects, and utility for
different outcomes. Recognizing these factors, researchers can design studies
that better characterize who will benefit from medical treatments, and
clinicians and policymakers can make better use of the results.
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