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ABSTRACT:
As decision- and policy-makers come to rely increasingly on estimates and simulations produced b y computerized models of the world, in areas as diverse and climate prediction, transportation planning, economic policy and civil engineering, the need for objective evaluation of the accuracy and utility of such models likewise becomes more urgent. This article summarizes a two-day workshop that took place in Santa Fe, New Mexico in December 1999, whose focus was the evaluation of complex computer models. Approximately half of the workshop was taken up with formal presentation of four computer models by their creators, each paired with an initial assessment by a statistician. These prepared papers are presented, in shortened form, in Section 3 of this paper. The remainder of the workshop was devoted to introductory and summary contents, short contributed descriptions of related models, and a great deal of floor discussion, which was recorded by assigned rapporteurs. These are presented in Sections 2 and 4 in the paper. In the introductory and concluding sections we attempt to summarize the progress made by the workshop and suggest next steps.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
Richard Berk, Peter Bickel, Katherine Campell, Sallie Keller-McNulty, Elizabeth Kelly, and Jerome Sacks, "Workshop on Statistical Approaches for the Evaluation of Complex Computer Models" (January 1, 2001). Department of Statistics, UCLA. Department of Statistics Papers. Paper 2001010105.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/uclastat/papers/2001010105