•   •   •   •

Download the Paper (341 K, PDF file) - February 1, 2008 Tell a colleague about it. Printing Tips: Select 'print as image' in the Acrobat print dialog if you have trouble printing.

ABSTRACT:
The exchange rate literature contains two inconsistent strands. There is a large theoretical and empirical literature on overshooting. In that literature overshooting is an important explanation for exchange rate volatility. A separate literature says that exchange rates are martingales and that models do not beat a random walk. Both can not be true. I show that the evidence for overshooting is highly suspect while the evidence that flexible exchange rates are approximately martingales is rock solid. Given the strength of the evidence, models that imply overshooting probably should be rejected out of hand.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
John Pippenger, "Freely Floating Exchange Rates Do Not Systematically Overshoot" (February 1, 2008). Department of Economics, UCSB. Departmental Working Papers. Paper 01-08.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsbecon/dwp/01-08