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Download the Paper (492 K, PDF file) - July 1, 2001 Tell a colleague about it. Printing Tips: Select 'print as image' in the Acrobat print dialog if you have trouble printing.

ABSTRACT:
Every subjective state space with sufficient (e.g., Euclidean) structure contains almost-objective events that approximate, and in the limit attain, the standard properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether they are expected utility/non-expected utility, state-independent/state-dependent, or probabilistically sophisticated/non-probabilistically sophisticated. These properties include well-defined and unanimously agreed-upon revealed likelihoods that are independent of the realization of other subjective events, probabilistic sophistication over almost-objective acts, and linearity of state-independent or state-dependent expected utility preferences over almost-objective acts and almost-objective mixtures of subjective acts. Many real-world randomization devices are based on events of this form.

SUGGESTED CITATION:
Mark J. Machina, "Almost-Objective Uncertainty" (July 1, 2001). Department of Economics, UCSD. Paper 2001-12.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsdecon/2001-12