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Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence from the Toronto Retail Gasoline Market
Michael Noel, University of California, San Diego
ABSTRACT: In this article, I exploit a new station-level, twelve-hourly price dataset
to examine the strong retail price cycles in the Toronto gasoline market.
The cycles are visually similar to the theoretical Edgeworth Cycles of
Maskin & Tirole [1988]: strongly asymmetric, tall, rapid, and highly synchronous
across stations. I test a series of predictions made by the theory
about how firm behaviors would differentially evolve over the path of a
cycle. The evidence is consistent with the existence of Edgeworth Cycles
and inconsistent with competing hypotheses. One finding is that smaller
firms are more likely than larger firms to initiate rounds of price undercutting
but the reverse is true for rounds of price increases. While the
cycles are an interesting phenomenon for study in their own right, the
evidence has important implications for understanding market power in
both cycling and non-cycling gasoline markets.
SUGGESTED CITATION: Michael Noel,
"Edgeworth Price Cycles: Evidence from the Toronto Retail Gasoline Market"
(January 1, 2004).
Department of Economics, UCSD.
Paper 2004-03.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsdecon/2004-03
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