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Potential of Long-lead Streamflow and Drought Forecasting in California
John A. Dracup, University of California, Berkeley
UC Water Resources Center Technical Completion Report W-856
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ABSTRACT: The research problem studied here is whether regional streamflows can be identified and
potentially predicted based on the impact ofEl Nino, La Nina and the Southern
Oscillation. The research focused on the following question: Can streamflow and
drought in California be predicted by scientifically understanding ENSO and large
scale circulation patterns? ENSO is defined as the EI Nino/Southern Oscillation climatic
phenomenon. For decades, the prediction of streamflow and drought has intrigued
hydrologists; our current research suggests that ENSO strongly affects streamflow and thus
could be an important factor in making long range forecasts of streamflow.
Researchers have determined that ENSO events have significant worldwide impacts on
such events as precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts and wildfires. ENSO is a
warm event in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is considered a significant perturbation of
the general atmospheric circulation. EI Nifio events have been observed and recorded
since 1726. They occur approximately once every 4 years; however, the time interval
between successive events varies from 2 to 10 years.
The research objective was to identify regions of land that appear to have a coherent and
consistent ENSO-related signal. The identification of these regions and the predictions of
the onset of an ENSO event could then lead to the prediction of climatic anomalies.
SUGGESTED CITATION:
John A. Dracup,
"Potential of Long-lead Streamflow and Drought Forecasting in California"
(July 2, 1998).
University of California Water Resources Center.
Technical Completion Reports.
Paper 856.
http://repositories.cdlib.org/wrc/tcr/856
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