Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Coal combustion to power China’s factories, generate electricity, and heat buildings has increased continually since energy use statistics were first published in 1981. From 2013 until 2015, however, this trend reversed and coal use continued to decline from 2,810 million metric tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 2,752 Mtce, leading to a levelling off of China’s overall CO2 emissions. Some analysts have declared that China’s coal consumption may have peaked, but preliminary data indicate that coal consumption increased in 2017. This recent growth, combined with our analysis of projected increases in electricity demand that cannot be met by other fossil-fuel or non-fossil-fuel electricity sources, along with projected increases in coal use in light manufacturing, other non-industrial sectors, as well as in coal use for transformation, indicates potential future growth of China’s coal use to levels of 2,908 Mtce to 3,060 Mtce in 2020, with associated increases in energy-related CO2 emissions.

As public and private institutions recognize the role of space exploration as a catalyst for economic growth, various areas of innovation are expected to emerge as drivers of the space economy. These include space transportation, in-space manufacturing, bioproduction, in-space agriculture, nuclear launch, and propulsion systems, as well as satellite services and their maintenance. However, the current nature of space as an open-access resource and global commons presents a systemic risk for exuberant competition for space goods and services, which may result in a tragedy of the commons dilemma. In the race among countries to capture the value of space exploration, NASA, American research universities, and private companies can avoid any coordination failures by collaborating in a public-private research and development partnership (PPRDP) structure. We present such a structure founded upon the principles of polycentric autonomous governance, which incorporate a decentralized autonomous organization framework and specialized research clusters. By advancing an alignment of incentives among the specified participatory members, PPRDPs can play a pivotal role in stimulating open-source research by creating positive knowledge spillover effects and agglomeration externalities as well as embracing the nonlinear decomposition paradigm that may blur the distinction between basic and applied research.

China's power system is highly regulated and uses an "equal-share" dispatch approach. However, market mechanisms are being introduced to reduce generation costs and improve system reliability. Here, we quantify the climate and human health impacts brought about by this transition, modeling China's power system operations under economic dispatch. We find that significant reductions in mortality related to air pollution (11%) and CO₂ emissions (3%) from the power sector can be attained by economic dispatch, relative to the equal-share approach, through more efficient coal-powered generation. Additional health and climate benefits can be achieved by incorporating emission externalities in electricity generation costs. However, the benefits of the transition to economic dispatch will be unevenly distributed across China and may lead to increased health damage in some regions. Our results show the potential of dispatch decision-making in electricity generation to mitigate the negative impacts of power plant emissions with existing facilities in China.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Using 11 years of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey data set for 2011 to 2021, we track the evolution of depression risk for U.S. states and territories before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use these data in conjunction with unemployment and COVID case data by state and by year to describe changes in the prevalence of self-reported diagnosis with a depressive disorder over time and especially after the onset of COVID in 2020 and 2021. We further investigate heterogeneous associations of depression risk by demographic characteristics. Regression analyses of these associations adjust for state-specific and period-specific factors using state and year-fixed effects. First, we find that depression risk had been increasing in the US in years preceding the pandemic. Second, we find no significant average changes in depression risk at the onset of COVID in 2020 relative to previous trends, but estimate a 3% increase in average depression risk in 2021. Importantly, we find meaningful variation in terms of changes in depression risk during the pandemic across demographic subgroups.

In the first of three related papers, the authors analyze the dynamic pattern of comparative advantage in fruit and vegetable trade flows between the United States and Latin America. Their examination of several factors--including market demand, improving investment climates, technological advances, and trade liberalization--indicates a significant potential for the development and expansion of trade flows to meet open windows of opportunity in the United States.

Available evidence taken from the experience of many countries strongly suggests that bad governments and institutions have been serious, if not the most serious, obstacle to economic growth; and all public sectors pursue a mix of both predatory and productive activities—bad governments emphasizing the former, and good governments finding a way of promoting the latter. Depending on your perspective, unfortunately or fortunately, participants in the public-sector policy process generally pay little attention to the advice and counsel of the economics profession. This, in part, is explained by the confusion that emerges from our profession over the role of the public sector. Some would have us believe that the government, or the public sector, is nothing more than a "clearing house" while still others advance frameworks that treat the public sector as a benign pursuer of the public interest.

In the second of three related papers, the authors develop a model that estimates the effects on prices, outputs, and trade flows arising from the elimination of U.S. import tariffs on contemplate agricultural commodities from Latin America. Eight agricultural commodities and six countries were selected for analysis. The authors also assess how the increased trade flows from Latin America to the United States are likely to create additional investment in the agricultural sector in Latin American countries.

Throughout much of the developed world, macroeconomic policies afforded a unique period of macroeconomic stability in the two decades following World War II. As a result, concern regarding the macroeconomic linkages with food and agricultural systems largely disappeared. In the early 1970s, with the major changes in monetary policies and central bank behavior, macroeconomic linkages were once again recognized as prime factors complicating the performance of the agricultural and food systems. The roller coaster ride that agriculture experienced over the 1970s and 1980s has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic and international linkages (Rausser et al., 1966). Agriculture's prosperous condition in the 1970s was followed by a recession in the 1980s. This more recent history stands in sharp contrast to the basic stability of the 1950s and 1960s. It is also important to recall that this roller coaster experience of the 1970s and 1980s is not unprecedented. For example, the period from 1900 through 1950 is surprisingly similar to the 1970s; and the late 1920s through the 1930s have some basic characteristics of the 1980s.