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Open Access Publications from the University of California

A generalized method for dynamic noise inference in modeling sequential decision-making

Abstract

Computational cognitive modeling is an important tool for understanding the processes that support human and animal decision-making. Choice data in sequential decision-making tasks are inherently noisy, and separating noise from signal can improve the quality of computational modeling. Currently, most models assume that noise is constant, or static, typically by including a parameter (e.g., uniform ε) to estimate the noise level. However, this assumption is not guaranteed to hold -- for example, an agent can lapse into an inattentive phase for a series of trials in the middle of otherwise low-noise performance. Assuming that noise is static could bias parameter and model identification. Here, we propose a new method to dynamically infer noise in choice behavior, under a model assumption that agents can transition between two discrete latent states (for example, attentive and noisy). Using four empirical datasets with diverse behavioral and modeling features, we demonstrate that our method improves model fit and that it can be easily incorporated into existing fitting procedures, including maximum likelihood estimation and hierarchical Bayesian modeling.

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