Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society

Predictive inference and error-driven learning are critical to optimal performance across many different contexts. However, the specific context determines the informativeness of errors in updating predictions. In this study, participants experienced two changing, unsignalled contexts with opposite optimal responses to errors; the change-point context, where errors were informative, and the oddball context, where they were not. The changes to the context occurred under two task structures: 1) a fixed task structure, with consecutive blocks of each context, and 2) a random task structure, with the context randomly selected for each new block. We modelled participants' performance using a Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF) model. We found that performance was greater in the oddball than change-point context, with more accurate and precise estimates. The estimates from the fixed task structure were also more precise than those in the random task structure. We showed that consistency in context can improve precision.